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Upstream emergency PV industry: a downstream component manufacturers or face a reshuffle
Photovoltaic industry is hot.
Recently, the photovoltaic (pv) of jiangsu province association deputy secretary-general bears source told reporters, "in the first half of this year, only (photovoltaic cell) production in jiangsu province is close to half of the total domestic output last year."
But the rapid development of the downstream, have begun to trigger a ripple effect - dormant for a long time of sun level polysilicon price curve recently began to lift.
Learned, relative to the may, solar energy polysilicon prices rose 30% last month, year is expected to exceed us $80 / kg.
In front of rising costs, downstream pv module manufacturer profit margins are squeezed. Does this mean that a new reshuffle is coming?
The relative shortage of
In early July 2010 China (east sea) silicon material industry development on the BBS, bear source said that "from the point of our statistics, in the first half of 2010, jiangsu province photovoltaic cells output of more than 2 gw."
This is almost the production number of jiangsu province last year. In 2009, jiangsu province, about 2300 megawatts of photovoltaic cell production accounts for about 57% of the country's production.
"Given the photovoltaic cell is September 11 month demand season, annual production of (photovoltaic cell) in jiangsu province is expected to reach 4 gw". Bear source predicted.
His prediction is not without facts.
To our reporter confirmed that artest ShiShangLin, general manager of the company in 2010, the products have been fully booked, "2011 orders is also very good".
But the downstream hot market, but in the photovoltaic industry chain upstream triggered a new raw material shortage of "relative".
In 2008, according to bear source, energy consumption in jiangsu province the sun about 15800 tons of polysilicon, which imported about 13600 tons. Last year, further solar energy polysilicon consumption growth in jiangsu province, at about 20000 tons. Although some polysilicon plant put into production in the province, but production is still only half of the demand, the other half of the gap only bought from overseas market, imports of about 8000 tons.
In his view, the future still have large polysilicon supply gap in jiangsu province, the need to rely on foreign markets.
The current situation of jiangsu province is only a microcosm of the photovoltaic industry. Under the relative shortage of dormant for a long time of polysilicon prices began to soar recently.
"The price of the upstream polysilicon for $60 - $65 / kg, is up 30% in May, this year is expected to rise to $80 / kg." Recently, a silicon chip manufacturers executives told reporters.
For the prediction, the nation's largest two polysilicon manufacturers - LDK and jiangsu zhongneng executives also hold the same judgment, a central individual silicon vendors even gives a forecast of $100 / kg.
So the price rise, seen polysilicon and pv manufacturers don't feel strange.
In 2004, polysilicon price is $24 / kg. Since then, all the way to March 2008 has risen to $400 - $500 / kg. But high prices and failure to maintain, prices fell sharply for a year to $115 / kg, and at the end of 2009 dropped to about $50 / kg.
The reporter understands, this round of polysilicon prices, mainly derived from the change of market supply and demand situation.
"We (silicon) products is now a is hard to find." Director of LDK President Office Yao Feng confirmed to reporters.
As the world's largest photovoltaic production country, since 2008, the domestic photovoltaic modules installed capacity expanded 2 times as much, but the corresponding polysilicon production capacity expansion only 50%.
Previously, due to the financial crisis, downstream market by extruding installation, polysilicon prices have been falling. But nowadays the market reversed, the European market hot more than expected this year.
After Yao Feng said. "they may enter the off-season, but until the product is still in short supply in June this year, domestic well-known photovoltaic battery manufacturers and component of enterprise is still full production".
The cost of the crisis
But the wafer cost prices, gradually become a threshold minimum downstream components manufacturers will face the crisis.
Sheng photoelectric nic chairman confessed, although silicon metal in early June began to rise in price to the end of June, but pv terminal at the beginning of this year has been signed for agreement with customer. Because of the price already locked throughout the year, (we) can only carry polysilicon price pressures.
In his view, the "rose a great influence on pure component manufacturers, without their own silicon factory or cell, in the second half of the survival difficult."
Although polysilicon prices high, but in the short term, it doesn't happen by accident. New supply.
"As a result of the limitation of no. 38 of the state council last year, the new polysilicon project has not approved. In fact, even if the group, the new project also need to have a debugging period of 2 years. At the same time, in the international market, Japan's hill, REC in Norway, Germany, the United States, such as Hemlock international expansion has seven factory also very cautious, so polysilicon supply tense situation in the future for a period of time is difficult to change." Yao Feng explains.
In this situation, famous component factory cost pressure, while the widget factory because there is no brand has been difficult to export.
In 2009, local production of 4000 megawatts of photovoltaic cells, more than 95% products are exported abroad. But compared to a few years ago, it is undeniable that the regulation of the export markets already more and more strict. Export products are subject to insurance company and the external certification (e.g., IEC61215, IEC61730, UL and CE), before entering the European and American market.
But this does not mean that the shrinking market space. In fact, the international pv market is still in the expansion.
According to the global famous solar market research and consulting firm Solarbuzz estimates, according to the current trend, this year the installation of pv power station quantity will be 2 times than that of last year, generating capacity will reach 15.2 gw.
Nic believes that brand components, or because of a good relationship with the silicon chip manufacturers, can obtain a better polysilicon prices, so as to remain competitive. In addition, such as LDK, yingli such polysilicon and components are production enterprise, itself has the price advantage of the integration of upstream and downstream. "Not surprisingly, these two kinds of enterprise nets a bigger market share".
Industry insiders estimate that unable to digest the rising cost pressure photovoltaic components of small and medium-sized enterprise, may again after the outbreak of the financial crisis collapse or shut down.
But in the eyes of large-scale pv manufacturers, these enterprises even close to bankruptcy, the value of mergers and acquisitions.
"We're not going to enterprise merger small components, because there were too many similar product line. We think according to their own planning construction or expansion is more cost-effective." One of the five components of CSI, director RON artest said.